Coffee Review / Oct 07
A BUY of one DEC 14 coffee futures contract on 10/3 at $2.065 today has erased the loss incurred on the SHORT one half contract that was closed out on 10/3 for a loss $5006.25 Back on the Signal again.
The price of coffee moved 14.14% higher during Q3 and 66.18% higher during the first nine months of 2014, making it the best-performing commodity in both categories. Coffee closed 2013 at $1.1635 per pound and after making a low of $1.1315 in late January, it took off. February, March and April saw a powerful rally that took coffee beans to a high of $2.2260, an increase of almost 97% in less than 90 days. A drought in Brazil, the world’s largest grower and exporter of the commodity, caused the rally. Last year, Brazil supplied 36% of the world’s coffee beans. Damage to the Brazilian crop continues to plague coffee supplies. Support for coffee rests at just below $1.80 a pound, while resistance is at the $2.226 level, the highs for the year. Open interest in coffee futures has been steady at the 150,000 to 160,000-contract level. Coffee closed the third quarter at $1.9335. The price of coffee is up 55.93% since 2000.
Coffee Outlook for Q4
Coffee took off at the beginning of Q4, closing at $2.0625 on October 3. Coffee is a very volatile commodity; daily trading ranges can be as high as 13 (6.5%) cents or more. The damage to the Brazilian crop will continue to influence this market for months to come. I expect coffee to move above the April highs and challenge all-time highs made in May 2011 at $3.0625. The futures curve in coffee is in contango with deferred contracts trading a premium to nearby contracts, telling us that while there are presently some supplies available, the market is concerned that future supplies could be tight. In a bear market for most commodity prices, coffee stands out as a potential bull market.