From Financila Times Report Nov 24th, 2014
"Concerns about robusta production comes amid supply worries for arabica, the higher-quality bean, as uncertainty surrounds supplies from Brazil, the largest producer.
After an unprecedented drought at the start of the year that damaged the trees and hit 2014 production, traders, roasters and investors have been focused on the 2015 harvest.
Two bad Brazilian harvests in a row would mean a large supply shortage, and the industry has been trying discern the extent of the tree damage wrought by the dry weather.
Volcafe said in its report that it could not forecast the 2015 Brazilian crop, to be harvested around June and July next year.
“It is currently not possible to forecast, with any reasonable confidence, the size of the 2015 crop,” it said. Keith Flury, head of coffee research at Volcafe, said that with delayed tree flowering – which will lead to the growth of coffee cherries currently under way – it would be mid to late-December when the trader would have a clearer view on production.
Both arabica and robusta prices rallied on worries about 2015 supplies, with ICE March arabica up 2.5 per cent to $1.955 a pound while Liffe January robusta gained 1.3 per cent to $2,104 a tonne.
Despite worries about forward production, roasters have been relatively relaxed about sourcing future supplies. Analysts have pointed to comfortable levels of inventories.
According to the latest USDA report on Brazilian coffee data, private carry-over stocks at the end of March this year were at the highest in seven years.